The impact of the German 'DEAL' on competition in the academic publishing market

In 2019 and 2020, German research institutions publishers Wiley Springer Nature closed the so-called DEAL agreements to facilitate open access publishing for researchers with affiliation. These do not have pay their articles in journals, as libraries cover these fees collectively. We use all publications chemistry from 2016 2020 estimate impact of on eligible scientists' journal choice applying a difference-in-differences framework. Even short treatment period, publication patterns changed. Eligible increased journals at cost other journals. Two competition concerns emerge: Authors may prefer publish thereby creating competitive advantage attracting good papers. Libraries be left fewer funds incentives subscribe or fund non-DEAL As academic are two-sided platforms, effects further spur concentration.